New arXiv paper: thousands of ML models poorly predict hundreds of life outcomes
RobbWiller · x · 2026-10-15
A working paper (arXiv:2610.17115) by Emily Cantrell and Matthew Salganik et al. uses a high-throughput approach on the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, training thousands of models per outcome across hundreds of life outcomes. Findings: most outcomes are poorly predictable; even the most predictable show little skill over simple procedures; patterns in predictability variation are modest.
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