Accurate Predictions Don't Guarantee Better Decisions: The Question of What AI Optimizes
AryHHAry · x · 2026-10-14
The author argues the most dangerous assumption in AI is that better predictions automatically yield better decisions. A prediction can be accurate yet aim at the wrong goal; an optimization process can be mathematically perfect while its underlying incentives are destructive.
Before asking how intelligent a system is, he says, ask two questions: what is the system actually optimizing, and who bears the consequences when it succeeds? His conclusion: intelligence without the right goal isn't progress—it's just a more efficient way to be wrong.
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