No AI bubble, just a local 'nubble': private markets overheat while the public core is earnings-backed
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-10-14
Investor JOBhakdi argues there's no overall AI bubble but a local "nubble": overinvestment in AI startups and real disruption to software giants are concentrated in private markets.
The public core of AI — compute, chips, memory, and companies actually deploying it — is backed by earnings, not hope, once you quantify rather than rely on "we've seen this before." He expects "fake pops": S&P drops of 5-10% followed by V-shaped recoveries since nothing fundamental changed, arguing the real skill is recognizing a fake pop while it's happening.
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