Polymarket puts only 13% odds on a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-13
Polymarket has launched a market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill, pricing just 13% odds by December 31, 2026 and 30% by June 30, 2027.
The market defines an AI safety bill broadly: release bans or mandated federal review, training restrictions (data/compute/parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements; voluntary submissions don't count. Traders broadly bet against substantive federal AI safety legislation in the near term.
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