TECs for external laser stabilization a multi-hundred-million-dollar market by 2028, Tellurium supply locked by First Solar
jwt0625 · x · 2026-10-12
An analysis of the TEC (thermoelectric cooler) market for external laser stabilization (ELS): roughly 0.2M units (<$5M) in 2026, 6-10M units ($60-200M) in 2027, and 22-30M units ($200-600M) in 2028 at $10-20 each. Supply chain wrinkle: most Bismuth and Tellurium capacity is concentrated in a few makers, and most Tellurium goes into solar panels — almost entirely to First Solar — so securing supply means negotiating with them. Most TECs still ship into pluggable optical modules, and the total market may shrink as one TEC controls more lanes and more powerful lasers.
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