Zvi ditches State of AI prediction markets, calling 2 of its gradings 'clear bullshit'
TheZvi · x · 2026-10-12
AI commentator TheZvi says State of AI's grading of its yearly predictions was poor: 5 predictions were marked N/A, and 2 were graded "Yes" on what he calls clear bullshit. As a result, he won't be running a Manifold market on State of AI's next round of predictions — sloppy grading makes betting pointless, and a reminder that annual AI prediction scorecards themselves deserve scrutiny.
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