csvoss: unless your p(doom) is 100%, trading AI-market arbs still makes rational sense
csvoss · x · 2026-10-09
In a debate over AI doom and markets, csvoss argues that as long as your p(doom) isn't exactly 100%, you should still care about finding and trading arbs today—future events could move your p(doom) lower, and in those worlds the money won't be useless. If you think the market is wrong, arbs exist. The core claim: given any set of beliefs, a rational strategy should exist, and pursuing it isn't worthless.
Related event: AI Doom Debate Flares Up Over the "Short the Market" Challenge(6 posts)→
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