If your p(doom) isn't exactly 100%, arbs today still matter, argues csvoss in AI-risk trading debate
csvoss · x · 2026-10-09
In a debate over how to trade on AI extinction risk, csvoss argues that unless your p(doom) is exactly 100%, you should still seek and trade arbs today—future events could push p(doom) lower, and in those worlds the money retains value.
The counterargument compares it to hedging the dollar's collapse with dollars—worthless either way. csvoss's reply: if you think the market has priced doom wrong, the mispricing itself is the arbitrage opportunity.
Related event: AI Doom Debate Flares Up Over the "Short the Market" Challenge(6 posts)→
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