Survey of 1,600 AI researchers puts AGI at 18% mean, 10% median probability
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-10-09
Citing Scott Alexander, this post highlights Katja Grace's survey of AI researchers who published at major conferences and journals: the sample of 1,600 gave the proposition an 18% chance on average. The poster adds a key clarification—the 18% is the mean; the median researcher gave just 10%, and people often mistake the mean for the median.
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