Theo: viral $132M/year token cost claim is wrong — closer to $3M now, $1.2k soon
dotey · x · 2026-10-08
Responding to the viral claim that a product's yearly token consumption is worth $132 million, theo debunks the math point by point:
- The pricing is wrong:
- "$11M/month" is off; real API cost is roughly $100k–$500k per month at today's prices.
- The 1.5T token figure includes cached tokens. From his own bills: 33.5B tokens cost $0.56/month, under 1/10th of the original $8/month estimate.
- Even using expensive models like Opus and Astra, 1.5T tokens would cost him $800k; with cheaper models and better cache hits, as low as $100k.
- Intelligence is collapsing in price: theo argues the same usage could drop from $3M today to roughly $1.2k within a year or two — $132M → $1.2k.
Bottom line: the viral "$132M/year" figure is wrong — closer to $3M today, and set to collapse further as model prices fall and caching improves.
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