Unverified: Baseten Gross Margin at 17%, Cursor Revenue Share Fell from 57% to 28%

menhguin · x · 2026-10-08

An unverified claim circulating from Rednote says inference cloud Baseten's gross margin was 17% last quarter, with full-year guidance cut from 30% to 20%, because demand outran contracted capacity and forced purchases of expensive short-term compute. It also claims Cursor fell from 57% of Baseten's annualized revenue in April to 28% in September, with only 4% gross margin on that business.

Sharer SuJinyan notes the numbers don't match known inference economics — Fireworks is publicly reported at 50% — though the broad point that inference margins sit far below SaaS is established, and OpenAI reportedly told investors similar things, offering supporting context. Treat sourcing with caution.

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