Superforecasters put AGI by 2030 at 0.3% — AI insiders and critics say the method is broken
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-10-08
Jon Stokes contrasted AGI timeline views: Dario Amodei and other AI insiders assign mid single-digit p(doom)-style probabilities, while Tetlock-style superforecasters put AGI at 0.3% by 2030 and 2% by 2050. Stokes notes a tension: Tetlock's own book admits the method degrades over longer horizons, making 0.3% the 'highest-quality' number.
teortaxesTex goes further, calling the figure gibberish and grounds to ignore superforecasting altogether: there is no such thing as 'AGI expertise' — as DeepSeek put it, no one has experience with what hasn't happened; only learning and clear reasoning transfer. The exchange crystallizes the expert-intuition-vs-statistical-forecasting clash on AGI.
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