Scott Alexander: Even without nanotech, 100 million robots still spell big trouble
slatestarcodex · x · 2026-10-07
Scott Alexander responds to the accusation that hard-takeoff narratives are exaggerated or "gaslighting." He acknowledges many forecasters are more aggressive than him, and the crux is whether superintelligences can do nanotech — a question he claims no special expertise on. So his approach is to argue the hardest version of the case: even assuming no nanotech and that AI must wait for 100 million robots to be built, this slow scenario still lands humanity in serious trouble.
He notes this is not a hidden scenario — it is essentially the setup of AI2027 (dated 2030 there; his timelines are slightly longer than Daniel Kokotajlo's). He is writing a blog post on this "no-nanotech slow takeoff" path, hoping it becomes better known as an alternative to the faster nanobot cases.
Related event: Scott Alexander and Neil Chilson Debate AI Doom Scenarios(4 posts)→
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