Debate over Paul Christiano's '90 math proofs' AI progress graph: where are the first 30?

allTheYud · x · 2026-10-07

A debate broke out over the progress graph Paul Christiano used in his post suggesting AI has solved 90 math proofs. allTheYud flags the key issue: on this nice smooth curve, where are the 30 proofs that came before the 90, and how much earlier should they have appeared?

The core concern is measurement methodology: without a preregistered fixed problem set, the curve's smooth takeoff may be inflated by selective counting.

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