25,000-worker Danish study finds chatbots have no measurable effect on earnings or hours
robseamans · x · 2026-10-07
A Brookings article by Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard surveys 25,000 Danish workers across 11 AI-exposed occupations, linking responses to monthly administrative records through December 2024.
Key findings
- Precise null effects: AI chatbots show no measurable impact on earnings or hours for either users or adopting firms, ruling out average effects above 2%.
- Still waters, rapid currents: most employers in exposed occupations now encourage chatbot use, backed by enterprise tools and training; chatbots are creating new tasks — drafting, oversight, compliance, integration — even for non-users.
- The exception is occupational mobility: adopters are more likely to have switched occupations into better-paying, chatbot-relevant roles, consistent with generative AI helping workers access scarce expertise.
- Early-career jobs have fallen, but firms encouraging chatbot use aren't driving the decline — a reminder to measure actual adoption before attributing labor trends to AI.
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