Jagged Frontier 12 Months On: AI Got Spikier, Experts Say, With No Middle Ground
connoraxiotes · x · 2026-10-04
A thread summarizing 12 months of AI progress argues:
- AI got spikier, not rounder: the frontier is more jagged, not more balanced.
- Maths, fluid reasoning, and expert work are past human level.
- Almost no middle ground: once a capability crosses human level, it often quickly becomes 100x+ cheaper than a human.
- Costs keep falling even after capability gains stop — language and knowledge look saturated but prices keep dropping.
- The remaining gaps aren't a budget issue: human-level memory, self-monitoring, and long-run planning aren't for sale at any price.
Conclusion: AI is now a superhuman specialist that is sub-human at running itself.
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