Prediction: AI capex will spike interest rates, then deliver 5% growth as the new normal
_sholtodouglas · x · 2026-10-04
- Blake Byers' modal prediction for the next decade: AI-related capex promises returns high enough to pull capital out of treasuries into investments, spiking interest rates — AI is the only modern project that could move real rates this much.
- Short term: rate spikes inflate debt servicing costs for governments and borrowers, triggering 3 years of panic.
- Then the market realizes the investments are paying off big; panic turns to euphoria. Interest payments stay high but growth-driven revenue more than offsets borrowing costs.
- Developed world settles into 5% growth as the new normal and demands 10% to be happy; healthcare consumption and R&D grow as a share of GDP as disposable income goes toward "not dying."
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