Just-significant economics results at p=0.05 have only ~25% replication odds, new I4R paper
RexDouglass · x · 2026-10-04
A new working paper from the Institute for Replication asks how likely a significant finding is to replicate in a study of the same size. The key takeaway: findings that barely clear the significance threshold replicate poorly — in experimental economics, a result at p=0.05 has only about a 25% chance of reproducing in an identical study, with the paper deriving replication probabilities across significance levels.
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