AI startup valuations jump 31-180x between rounds, some in under 2 months
zebird0 · x · 2026-10-03
Peter Harris documents extreme valuation jumps in AI fundraising:
- Sequoia data: Pat Grady revealed 7 deals where Sequoia's average entry was $110M, with the next round priced at an average $3.4B less than a month later — a 31x differential
- Examples: Crosby went from $27M post-money seed to $289M pre-money Series A in 51 days; Ricursive $750M to $3.7B in 55 days; Gimlet $208M to $2.7B in 165 days; Instinct $50M seed to $9B pre-money Series C in 175 days
- Over a dozen such cases found, ranging 4x to 180x, all within 8 months
Three drivers:
- AI changed the power law — Anthropic went from $61.5B to $965B in 15 months
- Too many dollars chasing too few founders — 2025 US deal value up 48% vs deal count up 6%; top 5 deals were 73% of Q1 2026 US deal value
- Giant funds — a16z, Thrive and Founders Fund raised 48% of all US VC dollars in H1 2026; at $10B scale, paying 30x for a sure thing still moves the needle
Related event: AI Startup Valuations Soar Up to 180x Between Rounds(2 posts)→
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