90% of AI chip value accrues to incumbents, no OpenAI equivalent for years
menhguin · x · 2026-10-03
The author argues AI's value-capture dynamics split sharply between software and hardware. Chips lack a real OpenAI/Anthropic-style challenger: over 90% of value goes to existing companies and will for years, barring an unexpected robotics x manufacturing breakthrough. Evidence: $SMH is up 4x from 2021 highs versus $IGV's 20%. He says he positioned accordingly.
Related event: Traders Weigh AI Bets: Incumbent Chip Giants Capture Compute Value(2 posts)→
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