HBM shortage to persist for years, analyst pushes back on Wall Street's 2029 memory crash bet
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-10-02
Replying to a discussion on memory cyclicality, the author argues the cycle is supply-driven, not demand-driven: several large memory fabs come online in coming years, and the question is whether demand can absorb the extra supply without collapsing today's elevated prices.
Key takes:
- Commodity DRAM supply will ease with new capacity from players like CXMT, but HBM relief is not on the horizon and will stay constrained for many years.
- The real question isn't whether demand is cyclical, but whether Wall Street's bet that demand crashes in 2029 is correct — the author thinks it isn't.
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