Paul Christiano's classic essay resurfaces as ben_j_todd pegs AI existential risk at up to 2/3

ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-01

benjtodd revisits Paul Christiano's classic short essay What Failure Looks Like, alongside his own existential risk estimates: 2/3 on the current inside-view trajectory, 1/3 with major action, and 10–35% all-things-considered. His reasoning: he sees no route to agents smarter than us that never scheme against us, nor a way to contain them if they do.

Related event: 80,000 Hours founder estimates up to two-thirds chance of AI extinction risk(2 posts)→

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