Carmack's AGI bet: why 1% odds beat sure wins in a crowded market
victor_explore · x · 2026-10-01
Palmer Luckey says John Carmack went all-in on AGI because even a 1% chance of success made it worth doing — the same logic behind his own defense bet, while other billionaires just go in circles on cars and rockets. Indie builder @victorexplore draws the lesson: world-sized payoffs at 1% odds still beat sure wins in crowded markets, and most indie builders run that math backwards.
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