AI data centers may push IG rates past 10% as compute absorbs global capital
sudoraohacker · x · 2026-09-30
Reacting to El-Erian's chart showing nearly all US Treasury maturities above 5%, the author argues that AI factories and data centers—offering one-year paybacks on 8-10 year assets—will keep bidding up the entire yield curve.
As compute gets securitized with standard insurance contracts and rental markets, the capital absorption intensifies. A seasoned CFO reportedly sees 10%+ investment-grade rates as possible within a few years and urges stress-testing corporate and bank balance sheets accordingly.
Practical takeaway: keep portfolio duration low, favor high cash-flow stocks and floating-rate bonds.
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