Alignment discourse shows a valence asymmetry: bad results count, good ones don't

QuintinPope5 · x · 2026-09-30

Researcher Quintin Pope points out a probabilistic tension in alignment debates: by the law of total probability, not all outcomes can update you toward pessimism. Yet he doubts skeptics would be reassured to see a new Claude with equal or lower cheating rates — exposing an asymmetry in the valence people assign to alignment evidence.

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