Verifying all of nixpkgs: 95% of machine code for ~$134M by end of 2027, study models
ctjlewis · x · 2026-09-30
Theorem Labs researchers modeled what it would take to formally verify an entire production software ecosystem, using the nixpkgs bootstrapping chain as a blueprint.
- Scope: 28,650 packages and 154 GB of machine code, including critical infrastructure like glibc, OpenSSL, and curl.
- They verify at the binary level so any language or toolchain is covered; human review scales with behavioral complexity, not code volume.
- Headline finding: if models improve at verification faster than overall capability, 95% of nixpkgs machine code could be verified for about $134M by end of 2027 — small versus $500B in annual global cybercrime damages.
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