Labs' optimal play: use safety as cover for whitelist partner programs, analyst argues
MxMnr · x · 2026-09-30
TMTLongShort reiterates a thesis he's pushed for 18 months: game-theory optimal for frontier labs is to use safety as an excuse to withhold frontier capabilities and instead go up the stack with vertical-specific incumbent partners via whitelist programs in exchange for revenue share. This solves distillation, enterprise inertia, TAM deflation and safety concerns at once — co-opting incumbents' brand and distribution while letting partners jump from 10-20% market share to 90%+, killing all non-whitelisted competitors.
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