Pinker: from poison gas to gray goo, failed doomsday prophesies warn against AI doom cognitive bias
sapinker · x · 2026-09-30
Steven Pinker notes that after WWI, humanity was predicted to be extinguished by poison-gas cropdusters; after WWII, nuclear holocaust; after 9/11, terrorists with WMD; after early nanotech, "gray goo" — all failed prophesies. This doesn't guarantee the AI doom prophecy will fail too, but should remind us of the cognitive bias of casually slipping from risk to existential risk, and to compensate accordingly. He cites John Mueller's piece on the persistent survival of cosmic alarmism for historical perspective.
Related event: Pinker Pushes Back on AI Doomism in Open Letter to Scott Alexander(3 posts)→
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