Eli Lifland: lab 'training pauses' likely oversold, only ~25% chance of real slowdown
eli_lifland · x · 2026-09-30
Forecaster Eli Lifland is skeptical that a frontier lab's claimed training pause means a real slowdown: he puts 25% on a substantial slowdown, arguing paused compute likely shifts to experiments with little impact on months-scale progress, and that public statements tend to oversell the deceleration.
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