Researchers put only ~25% odds on a real frontier AI training slowdown

gleech · x · 2026-09-30

AI safety researcher Eli Lifland and gleech discuss reports that a frontier lab has paused training: as of Saturday training seemed "remain paused," but both agree it's weak evidence. Lifland puts only 25% probability on a substantial slowdown and is unsure how long the claimed pause is meant to last.

Related event: Forecaster Eli Lifland doubts training pause will meaningfully slow frontier AI, puts ~25% odds on real slowdown(6 posts)→

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