AI Doom Forecasts Range From 0.1% to 100% — Experts Have No Consensus
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-09-29
Richard Hanania argues outsiders shouldn't trust AI doom predictions because the field lacks consensus: a 2022 survey put expert estimates of extinction by 2100 between 0.1% and 100%, roughly evenly distributed; a Dec 2024 survey shows 1%/10%/25% at the 25th/50th/75th concern percentiles. His take: fall back on base rates, so p(doom) is low. Quoter teortaxesTex quips that Mechanize (which sponsors the post, hiring alignment engineers at $300-400K) should rush into a Google acquisition.
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