The math on doomer borrowing: why 50% extinction credence doesn't justify borrowing to spend
trevposts · x · 2026-09-29
Trevposts rebuts the claim that serious AI doomers should borrow heavily to enjoy their final years: borrowing only boosts consumption if the annual hazard rate exceeds the borrowing rate. Even with 50% credence of extinction by 2040 evenly distributed (median 2033), it wouldn't make sense to borrow above 5.2% interest — worse than most mortgages, let alone tax- and collateral-unfavored consumer debt. Later-weighted extinction timelines require even more favorable terms.
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