Ex-pro gambler dismantles Caplan's AI doom bets: small stakes prove nothing
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-09-29
Bryan Caplan claims AI doomers 'know they're being silly' because few will bet him on the end of the world. Ex-pro gambler KeiranJHarris counters that a few hundred bucks is play money, and Caplan can't prepay $10k+ unless he trusts repayment—so structuring a meaningful doom bet is far harder, and few takers prove little. Ben Todd adds odds should reflect doomers' 10-30% risk estimates; Harris proposes: $125 CPI-adjusted per $100 prepaid by Jan 1, 2036, up to $100k.
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