AI doomer offers doubled odds on bet that AI risk will be top cause of death by 2036
trevposts · x · 2026-09-29
In an ongoing debate, trevposts quantifies his AI risk credence: he believes AI risk over the next 10 years is the leading cause of death in expectation globally, beating heart disease (20M/year), implying at least 2.5% (200M/8B) mortality probability. He offers a doubled-odds bet — his CPI-adjusted $262.50 against the other party's $250, settling 9/28/2036 — and says he'd go higher.
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