Anthropic researcher lists three failed predictions on AI progress
dioscuri · x · 2026-09-29
An Anthropic researcher lists three forecasting misses: image-to-video generation turned out far easier than expected; agents like Opus 4.5 arrived 18+ months earlier than he predicted; and he overestimated how fast GPT-4-class agents would diffuse economically — capability accelerates, adoption lags.
Related event: Anthropic Researcher Reviews Three Forecasting Misses(2 posts)→
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