AI infra panel: 25 years of 'cheaper compute shrinks the market' predictions never came true
GregoryDiamos · x · 2026-09-26
- On an AI infrastructure panel with OpenAI's VP and SemiAnalysis' Dylan Patel, Andrew Feldman revisited two predictions that have circulated for 25 years and never came true.
- Prediction one: falling compute prices shrink the market. In reality, every price drop spawned new applications and grew the market — chips have delivered more output per watt and per dollar for a decade.
- Prediction two: edge compute shrinks data centers. Putting compute in pockets created millions of new apps, most of which still lean on data centers for the heavy lifting.
- Takeaway: compute economics is not zero-sum; the entire market grows together.
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