Polymarket puts only 12% odds on a US AI safety bill passing this year

Polymarket · x · 2026-09-26

Polymarket's new market prices a US federal AI safety bill at just 12-21% odds by end of 2026 and 47% by mid-2027. Qualifying bills must include provisions like mandatory model review, training/compute restrictions, usage limits, or human-in-the-loop requirements — reflecting market skepticism on federal legislation despite recent agent-safety incidents.

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