Trader predicts AI trade tops Oct 2026 on Anthropic IPO, with model demand bifurcating
menhguin · x · 2026-09-25
A trading-oriented thread predicts the second top for the AI trade: if the pattern repeats exactly, the peak comes in October 2026 after Anthropic's IPO and options debut, followed by the November 2026 US midterms — with December seasonality worth watching. The author argues the mechanism differs from the prior "Opus 4.5 pump," which was driven by immediate gains to existing workflows via coding-agent scaffolding; autonomous research workflows take longer to set up and should align with the peak-trough cycle. He expects demand to bifurcate: most use cases drop to Kimi K3-tier and below, while autonomous research stays with Fable+-class models.
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