Investor argues analogy-based AI capex bubble takes underestimate LLMs' self-induced demand
menhguin · x · 2026-11-11
menhguin argues that reasoning by analogy — e.g. "everyone doing capex will crush margins" — has subtle pitfalls, because LLMs are unusually good at inducing their own demand via strong software engineering and general cross-domain reasoning. Drawing on railroad bubble history and startup experience, he says he's long semis and recently added to cloud and select software names ($CRM, $BABA), with three theses: AI capex builds its own capex, RSI's bottleneck is compute, and TAM estimation variance is wide.
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