Supply board shows HBM, Blackwell, NAND and transformers all near critical
tengyanAI · x · 2026-09-25
The author cites sources behind the SSD-tightness claim and shares Tessara's "Constraint Radar" supply board:
- Tightest: HBM3e at 90 (Critical).
- Critical tier: Blackwell GPU (90, rising), DRAM DDR5 (87), power transformers (87), ABF substrate (84), NAND Flash (81), OSAT packaging (81).
- Tight tier includes: H100 GPU, Chinese AI accelerators, MLCC, CoWoS, 3nm wafers, optical transceivers, gas turbines, UPS/batteries.
- Memory, compute, power, foundry and networking are almost entirely Tight or worse; only NVLink switches, PCIe/CXL and a few nodes are Balanced.
It backs the earlier datapoint of 16-week enterprise SSD lead times and Seagate booking nearline capacity into 2028.
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