Why Tesla Semi Won't Scale: Each 4680 Cell Earns 20-30% Less Than in a Model Y
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-09-25
Tesla Semi is a great product, but the constraint is batteries: Cybercab, Model Y and Semi all draw from the same limited 4680 cell supply, and per cell the Semi earns roughly 20-30% less than a Model Y and far less than the Cybercab. With supply capped, Tesla allocates cells by margin, not demand — so the Semi won't scale anytime soon despite market appetite.
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