Gavin Baker: Mag7 to hit $50-100T but one or two will die; SpaceX is a once-in-a-career bet

elonmusk · x · 2026-09-25

Elon Musk amplified a long-form take from investor Gavin Baker:

On Mag7: market cap goes from $10-12T to $50-100T, but one or two will go extinct. His foundation-model survival list is short: Google (search+Gemini flywheel), Meta (Llama plus ad revenue), xAI (X+Tesla data). Anthropic, OpenAI and everyone else are treated as commoditized.
SpaceX: Baker owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla sub-$2B, but his biggest regret will be the price of SpaceX after IPO. 10,000 employees could have sold every 6 months for a decade and almost nobody did — secondary pricing was a decade underpriced. His analog: the British East India Company, "empire scale, not tech scale."
Other calls: the Elon-Anthropic partnership didn't exist four months ago ("everyone has a price"); application SaaS is done; AGI in 5 years is safer than Elon's 3; leading labs "weaponized fear of China" and there will be no regulation.

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