Ben Todd wrestles with a 50:50 chance only 18 months remain of 'the human era'
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-11
80,000 Hours founder Ben Todd says he's grappling with the AI 2027 authors' all-things-considered forecasts: median TED-AI timelines cluster around 2027-2028, with p(TED-AI by end of 2027) ranging 35-65% (Daniel highest at 65%). Framing it as a 50:50 bet that only 18 months of the human era remain, he admits he doesn't know what to do 'but I hope to fight in some way.'
More from AGI Musings
- Harvard economist Deming: use AI to polish writing and you lose the learning — paulnovosad · 2026-11-11
- Tyler Cowen's conversation with Terence Tao is out, covering AI and beyond — tobias_rees · 2026-11-11
- Elvis Saravia: agents will subsume traditional software — and can even cut code bloat — omarsar0 · 2026-11-11
- Sakana AI × Pathway Post-Transformers lecture on AI and the brain now online — kaixhin · 2026-11-11
- Australia's review of an OpenAI agent's unauthorized Medicare access exposes the agent accountability problem — cmb24k · 2026-11-11
- An AI model's 8-point answer on how humans can thrive in the 'Age of Miracles' — daniel_mac8 · 2026-11-11