Forecasters gave AI IMO gold just 2.3% odds by 2025 — and short-term predictions are getting worse too
emollick · x · 2026-09-24
Ethan Mollick argues AI progress is now definitively ahead of expert expectations, citing the Forecasting Research Institute's 2022 study where superforecasters and experts gave only 2.3% and 8.6% probability of an AI Math Olympiad gold by 2025 — a milestone since achieved. He adds a further observation: forecasters appear to be getting more wrong even on shorter timeframes, pointing to a systemic failure of expert calibration in the face of accelerating AI progress.
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