AI2027 Author Kokotajlo Shifts AGI Median Timeline to Around 2030
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-11
- Daniel Kokotajlo, lead author of AI 2027, now gives an AGI median of "around 2030", with an updated timelines & takeoff model and blog post coming soon.
- He cites slower-than-expected progress over the past year and a new model yielding different results; AI 2027's page now carries a disclaimer that 2027 was only the modal year at publication.
- Marius Hobbhahn quips that Daniel was the one who convinced him of 2027, and Jacques Thibodeau notes they were updating on different evidence all along.
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