Forecasters keep underestimating AI revenue growth while overestimating self-driving diffusion
davidmanheim · x · 2026-09-24
A recap by the Forecast Research Institute shows forecasters have a mixed record on AI adoption and diffusion: two studies found they greatly underestimated AI revenue growth (a key adoption proxy), they're on track to overestimate self-driving car diffusion, yet they're fairly accurate on AI's electricity share (3-4% by end of 2027 vs a 3.2% LLM projection). David Manheim adds that Robin Hanson's economic-impact view is less obviously mispredicted, though current estimates likely exceed his expectations.
More from AGI Musings
- UK Officials Privately Believe AI Companies Overstate Risks for Financial Gain — connoraxiotes · 2026-09-24
- Commenter: 90% of Silicon Valley Is in Mass Psychosis Over AI, Backed by Trillions — mjdramstead · 2026-09-24
- LWiAI Podcast #257: GPT-6 Astra, AI Extinction Warnings, and a Wave of Security Incidents — Last Week in AI · 2026-09-24
- Dance duo Jess and Morgs stage 'Deepfake', interrogating truth in the AI era — nordicinst · 2026-09-24
- Australian Tutoring Company Shuts Down, Tells Parents to 'Use AI Instead' — Old-Competition3596 · 2026-09-24
- If No One Can Afford to Train Frontier Models, Can Composition Be Open Source AI's Path? — WebAssemblyMan · 2026-09-24