Experts forecast AI virology parity for 2030-2034; it arrived in April 2025
davidmanheim · x · 2026-09-24
A study run by ResearchFRI from late 2024 to early 2025 found both virology/biosecurity experts and superforecasters underestimated AI progress. Median expert forecasts put AI matching a top virologist team on the VCT benchmark at 2030, superforecasters at 2034 — in reality models hit that bar in April 2025, 5-10 years early. Similar underestimation appeared on the Cybench cybersecurity benchmark. Both groups agreed this capability raises human-caused pandemic risk, with experts predicting a larger increase.
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