AI beats forecasts: top AI ARR hits $100B vs $16-25B predicted, training runs cost $388M
koltregaskes · x · 2026-09-24
A tracking post compares AI economic forecasts with reality (as of Sept 2026): the largest AI company ARR is $100B, blowing past forecasts of $16B (economists), $20B (experts) and $25B (SF) for end-2026. The most expensive training run hit $388M by mid-2025, versus 2022 forecasts of $100-180M by 2030. Data-center buildouts and AI's electricity share are tracking as forecast; robotaxis hold 2.5% of US ride-hailing, below the 7.3% expert forecast but near the 2% SF one. The outperformance is driven by Anthropic and OpenAI revenue growth; macro questions like GDP and unemployment impacts still lack enough datapoints.
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