AI boom's 'teaser period': trillions in compute commitments come due in 2027-2028, article warns
sebpaquet · x · 2026-09-24
Carl Feynman shared a Groundbreaker essay he calls the first plausible AI-bust argument he's seen — free of the usual doom-mongering, grounded purely in the math of compute commitments. The piece draws an analogy to the 2006-07 subprime teaser period: just as $1T of adjustable-rate mortgages were contractually set to reset in 2007-2008, AI companies have committed to purchasing compute from new data centers starting next year, with obligations that may far exceed their revenues. The reset wall hits in 2027-2028, when companies must keep attracting investment to honor their commitments. The exposure is greatest for OpenAI and comparatively smaller for Anthropic.
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