Huang and Musk: China reaches advanced lithography in 2-3 years; chip bans only buy time
beffjezos · x · 2026-09-24
Kyle Chan cites two judgments: Jensen Huang believes China will "get there" on advanced lithography by 2030, while Elon Musk says China will address compute constraints via lithography and chipmaking in 2-3 years.
beffjezos comments that suppressing Chinese access to US compute chips buys only 2-3 years while creating a longer-term supply-chain independence problem—a game-theoretically tough call where every suggestion is self-serving.
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